Posted on April 15th, 2008 in Daily Mortgage/Housing News - The Real Story

Below are the real March foreclosure numbers for CA just released minutes ago from ForeclosureRadar. Sit back, relax, have a large bottle of brown liquor nearby and read away. Remember when reading, that Notices-of-Default lead foreclosures by several months in some cases. Also remember, this housing and credit crisis will not end until home prices/sales/foreclosures bottom and stabilize. By the looks of the most recent data, that is a long way off.

**In CA for March, there were 27,541 FORECLOSURE FILINGS and 42,704 NOTICES OF DEFAULT for a total of 70,246 early/mid stage foreclosure filings. This is the killer that nobody reports…in CA in Feb, ALL HOMES (New & Existing) SOLD WERE ONLY 20,513. ALL NEW HOMES SALES for the ENTIRE 10-STATE WESTERN REGION in Feb were only 13k and ALL EXISTING HOME SALES for the ENTIRE 10-STATE WESTERN REGION were only 55k. One more thing…the MAJORITY of the Notice of Default surge is not from subprime loans. Not even close. I can’t specifically tell you which program types are defaulting to the greatest degree, as that is part of a paid service rolling out soon, but I can say they are not subprime and they are not fixed…actually they likely are subprime but the ratings agencies just haven’t got there yet!

This means that March CA foreclosure activity is…A) greater than all THE HOMES PURCHASED IN THE WESTERN REGION the month prior. B) nearly 350% GREATER than all the homes bought in CA alone! C) Not primarily a subprime problem. This is a disaster.

Also note that repossessed homes that are sold through a real estate agent count in the Existing Home Sales number, so the problem is alot worse than the public data show.

Foreclosure sales at auction declined 6.5% to 15,833 units likely due to the unavailability of financing and general fear.

Wow!! ONLY 2.3% of foreclosed homes sold at auction…the rest went back to the lender swelling inventories…how about tham apples Charles Bederman. This is despite an average discount of 21% with 39% of the homes offering a 30% or greater discount.

In summary, the worst in CA is absolutely still to come for housing. And everyone is too busy trying to figure out how to bail people out and focusing on subprime to realize that WE HAVE NO JUMBO LOAN PROGRAMS. The Fannie/Freddie ‘conforming/Jumbo’ programs stink, as they have very few programs available and nobody wants a 7% 30-yr fixed rate loan. Why, when they have an exotic currently and their payment is one-third of a 30-yr fixed. It is all about the monthly payment, remember. For purchases, a 7% 30-yr fixed with a large down payment does not buy the average household much home.

Given this, the worst is yet to come for the financial markets because until real estate quits crashing and goes through a long period of stabilization there can be no basing and subsequent recovery. Either that or bring back all the exotic loan programs and the problems end tomorrow. – Best, Mr Mortgage

This report compliments of data provided by ForeclosureRadar…nobody compares to their accuracy, timliness or depth. You can sign up for your free monthly report by going to the site link above.


Download Mar_2008_CA_Foreclosure_Report.pdf 

Back-Up data for Mr Mortgage analysis in addition to the ForeclosureRadar report:

DataQuick Monthly Home Sales Report

Realtor.Org New Home Sales Data

Census Bureau New Home Sales Data


Businesses looking for more detailed CA foreclosure information and analysis BY BANK on the mortgage products driving this crisis, the real conditions on the ground and what is likely to come next, please contact me at mrmortgagetruth@gmail.com .

Coming soon –

-Data on every foreclosure by bank (ground zero for the housing crisis)

-Daily updates on foreclosure sales (only source of same day housing sales data currently available)

-Exclusive auction discount data (an early look at which banks are dealing or need to deal)

-Auction pull-through data (what percentage is selling at auction from which banks)

-Which banks maybe delaying foreclosures and why

-Current and projected REO inventories

-Rates and velocity of change in NOD’s, foreclosures and REO by bank and market graphically displayed (bank specific risk-management failures)


  1. With this kind of supply and very elastic demand I am not even sure if the supply-demand curve does in fact intersect 🙂 ?

  2. Monsieur Mortgage … may I ask what your top five fave shorts are please?

  3. Apres’ le deluge?

  4. Whoa Nellie! It looks like the predictions of a SECOND Great Depression are a possibility. I found amazing information at http://www.RunOnTheBank.Org

    Our Mr. Paulson Secretary of the Treasury is probably celebrating with his pet snakes preparing for the next big bailout of Wall Street banks. He is formerly from Goldman Sachs, the inventor of the Collateralized Debt Obligation – CDO- that is helping Wall Street insiders increase their wealth.

  5. I do live in California and do not think me racist but I have noticed that there are fewer Hispanics. I think now that they can’t get jobs in gardening and construction they can not make payments on those houses and have decided to just go home. No one is staying in the abandoned houses so where did the people go.
    I have read on GEAB (2020Leap/GEAB)they feel as if this whole thing is going collaspe in September and that the 401k system is in trouble and by the end of year there will be problems all over the globe regarding the 401k investment program.
    I think this whole thing is going to be our worst nightmare, can’t get to work can’t afford gas, have to eat beans and rice (if you can find rice) because the truck drivers can’t afford to fill tanks to get the food to the stores, cities going bankrupt. Can’t afford to heat the house in the winter 500 and 600 gas bills.
    This is reaching every area of commerce. The number of people who will be going out of business will be a nightmare. Restaurants will be hit hard. Non necessary businesses will be shutting down, all areas of construction and home improvement will be hit hard. Electronics won’t be moving off the shelves. Movie theaters will get hit hard because who has an extra 30 dollars for two people for one movie. People are going to cut back on everything that they can’t eat. Tons of unwanted pets in the dog pound. Oh what a wicked web we weave when first we practice to deceive.

  6. living simply, indeed VERY simply, is morphing from option to necessity; face it, the middle class and levels below it borrowed from the future over the last 15 years or so, in order to live a lifestyle that their incomes did not justify – high ceilinged homes, big trucks, extravagent vacations…now balance is returning, but we have to pay back what we have already spent…the excess air is coming out of the airhead culture that we have created and allowed to dominate our lives. Time for each of us to decide, Morpheus…red pill or blue pill?

  7. I well remember the crash of the ’80’s and this one coming up looks to be much worse. There are only thre things to do….

    Get out of debt

    Stockpile some food and water

    Buy a gun if you don’t already own one.

  8. why get out of debt? I’d say get into more debt and save your cash and buy gold & silver.

    Then default on your loans when the run on banks begin.

    Screw the credit card companies!!

  9. If you own land, whats wrong w/share cropping? as long as you can trust your pard? any advice?

    b. w.

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