Posted on April 16th, 2008 in Mr Mortgage's Personal Opinions/Research
Below are the real March foreclosure numbers for CA just released minutes ago from ForeclosureRadar. Sit back, relax, have a large bottle of brown liquor nearby and read away. Remember when reading, that Notices-of-Default lead foreclosures by several months in some cases. Also remember, this housing and credit crisis will not end until home prices/sales/foreclosures bottom and stabilize. By the looks of the most recent data, that is a long way off.
**In CA for March, there were 27,541 FORECLOSURE FILINGS and 42,704 NOTICES OF DEFAULT for a total of 70,246 early/mid stage foreclosure filings. This is the killer that nobody reports…in CA in Feb, ALL HOMES (New & Existing) SOLD WERE ONLY 20,513. ALL NEW HOMES SALES for the ENTIRE WESTERN REGION in Feb were only 13k and ALL EXISTING HOME SALES for the ENTIRE WESTERN REGION were only 55k. One more thing…the MAJORITY of the Notice of Default surge is not from subprime loans. Not even close. I can’t specifically tell you which program types are defaulting to the greatest degree, as that is part of a paid service rolling out soon, but I can say they are not subprime and they are not fixed…actually they likely are subprime but the ratings agencies just haven’t got there yet!
This means that March CA foreclosure activity is…A) greater than all THE HOMES PURCHASED IN THE WESTERN REGION the month prior. B) nearly 350% GREATER than all the homes bought in CA alone! C) Not primarily a subprime problem. This is a disaster.
Also note that repossessed homes that are sold through a real estate agent count in the Existing Home Sales number, so the problem is alot worse than the public data show.
Foreclosure sales at auction declined 6.5% to 15,833 units likely due to the unavailability of financing and general fear.
Wow!! ONLY 2.3% of foreclosed homes sold at auction…the rest went back to the lender swelling inventories…how about tham apples Charles Bederman. This is despite an average discount of 21% with 39% of the homes offering a 30% or greater discount.
In summary, the worst in CA is absolutely still to come for housing. And everyone is too busy trying to figure out how to bail people out and focusing on subprime, to realize that WE HAVE NO JUMBO LOAN PROGRAMS and the Fannie/Freddie ‘conforming/Jumbo’ programs stink…nobody wants a 7% 30-yr fixed rate loan when they have an exotic currently paying one-third of that per month. It is all about the monthly payment, remember. Given this, the worst is yet to come for the financial markets because until real estate quits crashing and goes through a long period of stabilization there can be no basing and subsequent recovery. Either that or bring back all the exotic loan programs and the problems end tomorrow. – Best, Mr Mortgage
This report compliments of data provided by ForeclosureRadar…nobody compares to their accuracy, timliness or depth. You can sign up for your free monthly report by going to the site link above.
FORECLOSURE RADAR MONTHLY CA FORECLOSURE REPORT
Back-Up data for Mr Mortgage analysis in addition to the ForeclosureRadar report:
DataQuick Monthly Home Sales Report
Realtor.Org New Home Sales Data
Census Bureau New Home Sales Data
Businesses looking for more detailed CA foreclosure information and analysis BY BANK on the mortgage products driving this crisis, the real conditions on the ground and what is likely to come next, please contact me at firstname.lastname@example.org .
Coming soon –
-Data on every foreclosure by bank (ground zero for the housing crisis)
-Daily updates on foreclosure sales (only source of same day housing sales data currently available)
-Exclusive auction discount data (an early look at which banks are dealing or need to deal)
-Auction pull-through data (what percentage is selling at auction from which banks)
-Which banks maybe delaying foreclosures and why
-Current and projected REO inventories
-Rates and velocity of change in NOD’s, foreclosures and REO by bank and market graphically displayed (bank specific risk-management failures)