Comments on: S&P Slashes $34 Billion in ALT-A Securities. ALT-A…The Next ‘Crisis’ http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/2008/05/28/sp-slashes-34-billion-in-alt-a-securities-alt-athe-next-crisis/ Your personal tour guide through the housing finance "misinformation maze". Thu, 14 May 2009 13:28:04 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Marc Authier http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/2008/05/28/sp-slashes-34-billion-in-alt-a-securities-alt-athe-next-crisis/comment-page-1/#comment-839 Marc Authier Fri, 30 May 2008 22:34:08 +0000 http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/2008/05/28/sp-slashes-34-billion-in-alt-a-securities-alt-athe-next-crisis/#comment-839 Joe Pa. It's mostly the stupid Russians, Chineese, Vietnameese, Ukrainians, Indians, and innumerable number of poor countries with pegged currencies to the US dollar, that are footing the bill. That's the beauty of the system ! Your US suffering is minimal, believe me. Your problems are still quite small compared to the total chaos that Bernanké has unleashed in Africa, Eatern Europe, Africa and Asia. 30% inflation rate is becoming the rule in these really damn stupid moronic countries pegged to the US dollar. Argentina all over again for them. These are the real victims, not the US. Naturally nobody in the US is really talking about the collateral damage in strange and faraway lands. Joe Pa. It’s mostly the stupid Russians, Chineese, Vietnameese, Ukrainians, Indians, and innumerable number of poor countries with pegged currencies to the US dollar, that are footing the bill. That’s the beauty of the system ! Your US suffering is minimal, believe me.

Your problems are still quite small compared to the total chaos that Bernanké has unleashed in Africa, Eatern Europe, Africa and Asia.

30% inflation rate is becoming the rule in these really damn stupid moronic countries pegged to the US dollar.
Argentina all over again for them. These are the real victims, not the US. Naturally nobody in the US is really talking about the collateral damage in strange and faraway lands.

]]> By: Joe Pa http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/2008/05/28/sp-slashes-34-billion-in-alt-a-securities-alt-athe-next-crisis/comment-page-1/#comment-830 Joe Pa Fri, 30 May 2008 19:34:54 +0000 http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/2008/05/28/sp-slashes-34-billion-in-alt-a-securities-alt-athe-next-crisis/#comment-830 That's right, housing is NOT tanking. So, would you think $3 a gallon of gas is cheap now too right... It's all relative to the time frames that you are referring to when looking at the data. In addition, it's more of a choice of words and Tanking is not the right word for what is happening. Boo hoo on the states and cities that are in poor shape. Yeah it sucks that our taxes are going to go through the roof to cover their bad decisions but they got along fine in 2001 when tax revenues were not nearly as high as they were in 2005, so where did all that extra money go? Bloomberg said it best (even though I am not a Bloomberg fan) when NYC had a mulit-billion dollar surplus in tax revenue, he said now is not the time to get greety and spend, it is the time to save for a rainy day. Well you know what, it's raining... That’s right, housing is NOT tanking. So, would you think $3 a gallon of gas is cheap now too right… It’s all relative to the time frames that you are referring to when looking at the data. In addition, it’s more of a choice of words and Tanking is not the right word for what is happening. Boo hoo on the states and cities that are in poor shape. Yeah it sucks that our taxes are going to go through the roof to cover their bad decisions but they got along fine in 2001 when tax revenues were not nearly as high as they were in 2005, so where did all that extra money go? Bloomberg said it best (even though I am not a Bloomberg fan) when NYC had a mulit-billion dollar surplus in tax revenue, he said now is not the time to get greety and spend, it is the time to save for a rainy day. Well you know what, it’s raining…

]]> By: Out at the Peak http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/2008/05/28/sp-slashes-34-billion-in-alt-a-securities-alt-athe-next-crisis/comment-page-1/#comment-829 Out at the Peak Fri, 30 May 2008 19:07:41 +0000 http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/2008/05/28/sp-slashes-34-billion-in-alt-a-securities-alt-athe-next-crisis/#comment-829 Joe Pa: Pretty much all of the housing bears agree that housing is just reverting and overshooting the mean. We knew the market would have to drop because of this measure, and we exited the market while the exiting was still good. However, in the eyes of Joe Six Pack, housing is tanking. If they purchased, refinanced with cash out or HELOCed in the last 4+ years (depending on area, etc), their highly leveraged investment is going sour. It is hard to see from their eyes, but that is an important view point to understand going forward. Joe Pa: Pretty much all of the housing bears agree that housing is just reverting and overshooting the mean. We knew the market would have to drop because of this measure, and we exited the market while the exiting was still good.

However, in the eyes of Joe Six Pack, housing is tanking. If they purchased, refinanced with cash out or HELOCed in the last 4+ years (depending on area, etc), their highly leveraged investment is going sour. It is hard to see from their eyes, but that is an important view point to understand going forward.

]]> By: Marc Authier http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/2008/05/28/sp-slashes-34-billion-in-alt-a-securities-alt-athe-next-crisis/comment-page-1/#comment-820 Marc Authier Fri, 30 May 2008 07:17:32 +0000 http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/2008/05/28/sp-slashes-34-billion-in-alt-a-securities-alt-athe-next-crisis/#comment-820 Minus 27% ? Does it include the effects of inflation rate ? The Case/Shiller adjusted to the CPI gives -21% for the whole country. Housing is tanking.Whatt about the rest ? Yeah try to say that to a moron who bought an internet stock in 2000. Reversion to the very mean. Reversion to less than zero. A lot of people are getting real poor. What's the number of people with negative equity again ? 10 million households ? 15 million ? 20 million ? With everything going up in price like a rocket, you can bet that the number of people with negative equity will explode again and again. Mean times. Housing is not tanking ? Scuzi ? I presume that the states, towns and federal budgets are in fantastic shape ? You are soo lucky to have all these stupid and l moronic foreigners financing again and again one bubble after another. I would like to know ? What will be the next bubble ? Housing is imploding. So is GM and Ford. And what about the big picture ? Don't believe the phoney numbers on the GDP and the GNP. Minus 27% ? Does it include the effects of inflation rate ? The Case/Shiller adjusted to the CPI gives -21% for the whole country.

Housing is tanking.Whatt about the rest ?
Yeah try to say that to a moron who bought an internet stock in 2000. Reversion to the very mean. Reversion to less than zero. A lot of people are getting real poor. What’s the number of people with negative equity again ? 10 million households ? 15 million ? 20 million ?

With everything going up in price like a rocket, you can bet that the number of people with negative equity will explode again and again. Mean times.

Housing is not tanking ? Scuzi ? I presume that the states, towns and federal budgets are in fantastic shape ? You are soo lucky to have all these stupid and l moronic foreigners financing again and again one bubble after another.

I would like to know ? What will be the next bubble ?
Housing is imploding. So is GM and Ford. And what about the big picture ? Don’t believe the phoney numbers on the GDP and the GNP.

]]> By: admin http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/2008/05/28/sp-slashes-34-billion-in-alt-a-securities-alt-athe-next-crisis/comment-page-1/#comment-817 admin Fri, 30 May 2008 06:10:16 +0000 http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/2008/05/28/sp-slashes-34-billion-in-alt-a-securities-alt-athe-next-crisis/#comment-817 just wait for my next research piece due out in the next 24-hours...it says the exact opposite. Median home prices in CA are down 27% in 11 months in CA. A 10% drop in one year in 1932 was considered a crash. That was the only other time in history real estate has experienced a double digit drop in 12 months. You tell me what 27% is considered. just wait for my next research piece due out in the next 24-hours…it says the exact opposite. Median home prices in CA are down 27% in 11 months in CA. A 10% drop in one year in 1932 was considered a crash. That was the only other time in history real estate has experienced a double digit drop in 12 months. You tell me what 27% is considered.

]]> By: Joe Pa http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/2008/05/28/sp-slashes-34-billion-in-alt-a-securities-alt-athe-next-crisis/comment-page-1/#comment-814 Joe Pa Fri, 30 May 2008 04:24:14 +0000 http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/2008/05/28/sp-slashes-34-billion-in-alt-a-securities-alt-athe-next-crisis/#comment-814 Housing is not tanking, it's reverting to the mean (with a little bit of overshoot thrown in for good measure). There is a big difference between something tanking and something that is rediculously overvalued returing to a mean that is based on fundamentals. Housing is not tanking, it’s reverting to the mean (with a little bit of overshoot thrown in for good measure). There is a big difference between something tanking and something that is rediculously overvalued returing to a mean that is based on fundamentals.

]]> By: Out at the Peak http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/2008/05/28/sp-slashes-34-billion-in-alt-a-securities-alt-athe-next-crisis/comment-page-1/#comment-807 Out at the Peak Thu, 29 May 2008 23:40:26 +0000 http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/2008/05/28/sp-slashes-34-billion-in-alt-a-securities-alt-athe-next-crisis/#comment-807 Rumors of MS buying out LEH on Yahoo Financial (or at least a proposal). Prices rumor between $8 to $20 per share. Also posted is "DJ Fitch Takes Various Actions On 49 Lehman Alt-A Deals" is going to force LEH to mark to market several trusts on Friday. Despite all this, LEH rallied into after hours. Rumors of MS buying out LEH on Yahoo Financial (or at least a proposal). Prices rumor between $8 to $20 per share. Also posted is “DJ Fitch Takes Various Actions On 49 Lehman Alt-A Deals” is going to force LEH to mark to market several trusts on Friday. Despite all this, LEH rallied into after hours.

]]> By: Marc Authier http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/2008/05/28/sp-slashes-34-billion-in-alt-a-securities-alt-athe-next-crisis/comment-page-1/#comment-801 Marc Authier Thu, 29 May 2008 18:59:59 +0000 http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/2008/05/28/sp-slashes-34-billion-in-alt-a-securities-alt-athe-next-crisis/#comment-801 That's if the median income also does not go down also. That’s if the median income also does not go down also.

]]> By: Out at the Peak http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/2008/05/28/sp-slashes-34-billion-in-alt-a-securities-alt-athe-next-crisis/comment-page-1/#comment-800 Out at the Peak Thu, 29 May 2008 18:55:21 +0000 http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/2008/05/28/sp-slashes-34-billion-in-alt-a-securities-alt-athe-next-crisis/#comment-800 I don't know if we'll have slow decline a la Japan. I've seen things drop very quickly in my area since Feb 2008 ($25000 per month). Between Jan 2006-Jan 2008, it was a slow decline with seasonal upticks ($7916 decline per month). I've seen other areas be further along or behind in the timeline. I watched a house sell for $560K in Nov 2005 (original price: $300K in 2001). It went REO and finally sold for $370K in Dec 2007. Comps held up through Feb and things stopped selling. Now a comp is pending with short sale approval at $295K. This comp is better in every way with loads of upgrades. I am a pretty big housing bear, but I can't believe my target price for that house has been exceeded. I thought at the bottom, this house would be worth $310K. Since the crisis is only just starting up, I don't know where it's going to land. Perhaps $220K as that's 3.5x median income and it is a median house. (11.5x annual rent.) I don’t know if we’ll have slow decline a la Japan. I’ve seen things drop very quickly in my area since Feb 2008 ($25000 per month). Between Jan 2006-Jan 2008, it was a slow decline with seasonal upticks ($7916 decline per month). I’ve seen other areas be further along or behind in the timeline.

I watched a house sell for $560K in Nov 2005 (original price: $300K in 2001). It went REO and finally sold for $370K in Dec 2007. Comps held up through Feb and things stopped selling. Now a comp is pending with short sale approval at $295K. This comp is better in every way with loads of upgrades.

I am a pretty big housing bear, but I can’t believe my target price for that house has been exceeded. I thought at the bottom, this house would be worth $310K.

Since the crisis is only just starting up, I don’t know where it’s going to land. Perhaps $220K as that’s 3.5x median income and it is a median house. (11.5x annual rent.)

]]> By: Marc Authier http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/2008/05/28/sp-slashes-34-billion-in-alt-a-securities-alt-athe-next-crisis/comment-page-1/#comment-797 Marc Authier Thu, 29 May 2008 16:23:53 +0000 http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/2008/05/28/sp-slashes-34-billion-in-alt-a-securities-alt-athe-next-crisis/#comment-797 Nah! Make another war. Bomb Iran. More to the point. It's very funny today. Dow Chemicals boosted all their prices (100%) in one big swoop by +20%! Same for Monsanto, General Mils, Hershy +40%, Occidental, Ashland, Meridith. The list of prices increases today goes on and on and on. By the way the LIBOR is exploding, the credit swaps are "misbehavvin" again on Lehman Brothers and Merril Lynch. What else interest rates on morgages are going up and unemployment is up to. But not to worry the folks on bubble TV are really bullish today. Oh and GM is laying another 10,000 employees. GREAT ! Nah! Make another war. Bomb Iran. More to the point. It’s very funny today. Dow Chemicals boosted all their prices (100%) in one big swoop by +20%!

Same for Monsanto, General Mils, Hershy +40%, Occidental, Ashland, Meridith. The list of prices increases today goes on and on and on.

By the way the LIBOR is exploding, the credit swaps are “misbehavvin” again on Lehman Brothers and Merril Lynch. What else interest rates on morgages are going up and unemployment is up to. But not to worry the folks on bubble TV are really bullish today. Oh and GM is laying another 10,000 employees. GREAT !

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