Today’s GDP Number Manipulation Simply Explained

Posted on July 31st, 2008 in Daily Stock Market / Economic News - The Real Story, Mr Mortgage's Personal Opinions/Research

from someone much smarter than I. -Best Mr Mortgage

The GDP Price Index inexplicably tanked to 1.1% in Q2; 2.4% was expected.

Nominal GDP declined to 3% from Q1’s 3.5%.  Government beancounters boosted ‘real’ GDP by 1.5 percentage points by collapsing the GDP Price Index to 1.1% from Q1’s 2.6%.

Q2 might be the inflation peak, with food and energy prices soaring; yet the US government wants people to believe that the GDP Price Index tanked to 1.1% from 2.6%!!!!! 

9 Responses to “Today’s GDP Number Manipulation Simply Explained”

  1. Just bear in mind that GDP is domestic production and excludes all imported materials and goods. That doesn’t ‘explain’ the month to months change but will make the GDP ‘deflator’ lower that the consumer price index.

  2. Same comments here 🙂

  3. HERE: http://realitylenses.blogspot.com/2008/07/us-administration-still-trying-to-hide.html

  4. Adolf Hitler and Joseph Stalin usede to do the same things with statistics. I have no respect for the scumbags working for the US government. I am not surprised and ALL their statistics is pack of lies. Don’t forget the inflation rate data. These people are fascists.

  5. This site has interesting tutorial infomation on GDP and M3:

    http://www.shadowstats.com/

  6. Yes, read shadowstats for a clear balanced look at what the real numbers are. The fudging of government stats have moved from spin to out-and out lies.

  7. Fudging ? Pure and simple NAZI propaganda.

  8. LOOK MOM ! IT’S A GEORGE W. BUSHIE STALIN MIRACLE ! 🙂

    U.S. GDP skyrockets… how our struggling nation managed to double economic growth
    But government includes a quiet revision… economy contracted last year for first time since the tech bust
    Ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report, one employment indicator that’s tellin’ it like it is!
    Stock market stages solid rally, famous stock picker calls for the bottom
    Finally, someone musters the stones to sue the ratings agencies
    Plus, The 5’s hit a nerve… the population control debate flares up in our 5 Min inbox

    U.S. economic growth doubled in the second quarter of 2008, says the government today. Doubled… as in twice as much.

    That’s what the bean counters claim this morning… the latest GDP report shows the U.S. economy grew at a 1.9% annual rate in the second quarter, more than double the anemic 0.9% growth rate in the first quarter. Word on the street is that stimulus checks and a better-than-usual trade deficit were behind the sudden boost. How the printing of $150 billion in free money and our $400 billion annual trade deficit cause economic growth… well… this editor doesn’t get it.

    You’d think Wall Street would rejoice on the news, but economists were expecting an even higher GDP reading. Just two weeks ago, the consensus forecast for today’s report came in around 1.8%. Somehow, expectations grew to 2.3% by this morning (what country do these people live in?), and thus, the Street is in a sour mood today. More on that in a minute.

    But there was one believable nugget in today’s GDP report. The Commerce Department quietly “unannounced” GDP growth in the last quarter of 2007. The government revised previous reports of 0.6% fourth-quarter growth down to a 0.2% contraction.

    That’s the first quarter of “negative growth” since the third quarter of 2001, when the economy was in recession.

    “The story now will go along the lines,” speculates John Williams , “that the economy dipped a little in the fourth quarter — not enough to be called a recession — and has been in recovery ever since. Despite sharp quarterly contractions in employment, industrial production, new orders, real retail sales and residential construction, among other series, the second-quarter 2008 GDP was reported as booming. (Net of inventory reductions, the inflation-adjusted economy expanded at an above-average annualized 3.9% rate.)

    “Such is an absurdity, given the reporting of better-quality surveys and extremely strong anecdotal evidence to the contrary. But the reporting will enable the pushing off of any recession recognition until after the election.”

    While economic growth in the U.S. is reported to be strengthening, the U.S. employment scene, as John mentioned, is still lousy. A healthier GDP report this morning may have overshadowed the exceptionally bad weekly jobless claims report. Initial jobless claims over the last week alone skyrocketed by 44,000, to 448,000, claims. That’s the worst such report since 2003. For what it’s worth, the four-week moving average is a monthly gain of around 393,00 claims.

    We’ll get the “official” jobs report from the Labor Department on Friday. Today’s jobless claims stand in stark contrast to yesterday’s positive ADP report… we’ll see where the government draws the line to

  9. Needs to get McSame into office to continue winning his war with a 100 year occupation of Iraq – and even if he loses Obama gets saddled with recognition of a recession, a half trillion deficit, two botched wars, a real estate collapse – and maybe another rebuilding of NO

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