Cramer: The Only One Who Got it Right All Along!(o)*&^%#*

Posted on August 2nd, 2008 in Daily Stock Market / Economic News - The Real Story, Mr Mortgage's Personal Opinions/Research

Cramer was being heralded last week for being the only one that predicted the financials meltdown from the beginning due to one 6-minute CNBC segment (the ‘Rant’).  This clip has somehow overshadowed hundreds of money losing calls and incorrect predictions (see lower half of post) of a ‘bottom’ over the past year and a half, which is about how long the financials have actually been in the meltdown phase.

From Nov 2006 when Own-It Mortgage Solutions (the first national subprime lender to fail) went down and prices for subprime whole loans, bulks and MBS began to drop I have been vigorously following this story and reporting to you the facts from an insiders point of view.

I have always tried to stay ahead of the story and the ratings agencies in order to give you an advantage whether you are a home owner or trader.  Over the past year and a half, Cramer and I have mostly been on different ends of the field on the subject.  Honestly it drove me crazy sometimes.  For example, mid-last year I put out a research piece on how Pay Option ARMs would be major trouble in 2008 and he told everyone to buy the Pay Option lenders stock within a week of my report.

As a matter of fact around the time of the ‘rant’ he was suggesting to buy banks and writing DSL (Downey Savings) on his knuckles saying it would go to $100 for nearly a month.

This post is not necessarily to bash Cramer, but rather to give you the facts and show to you once again how much of the mainstream media distorts the truth and how you can’t take everything that they report at face value.  Also, showing his ‘predictions’ over the past year in this manner really makes ya go ‘huh?’.  It is incredible. 

The pumpers think they are helping people by bashing shorts and always painting the best possible picture of a company.  What they do not realize is that they are not hurting the shorts, but rather the longs who buy the stock on the pump and lose nearly every time when it comes crashing back to Earth a short period of time later under its own terrible fundamentals in the case with many financials.  

Below is a listing of Cramer’s calls for the past 15-months. Your Money  has been diligent in keeping up with the Cramer Variety Hour.  This is Cramer’s resume, not a  6-minute soundbite in August when his sentiment changed literally overnight for some strange reason and he got lucky.

In all fairness, he has made some decent calls macro calls such as crude going to $150 and the DOW hitting 14,500 last year amidst the housing market crash backdrop.  But in this post I wanted to focus on the daily/bad single issue call in the financials and short-term market timing predictions that can crush an individual investor.  

It is a quick read but by the end you will feel nauseous and have a headache, that I can promise. -Best Mr Mortgage

CRAMER’S RESUME (In March 2007 subprime was big headlines due to New Century, Fremont, NovaStar etc failing. Everyone was calling it ‘contained’ and the losses would not go past a few non-bank greedy mortgage lenders)

MARCH 06, 2007 – The financials are bottoming now.
 
MAY 11, 2007 – The worst is baked into the retail stocks
 
June 13, 2007 – Fed easing is off the table. The market has hit bottom and is ready to roll again.
 
JULY 05, 2007 – Negative rumors may continue but it’s important that you stay strong. The bears will continue to be wrong. Still see the Dow going to 14,548 this year. This is the season to be in technology
 
JULY 09, 2007 – We are in a dramatic, runaway bull market. Stocks that go to 80 tend to go to 120. Tech, cable & telecom will work. Oil goes to the mid 80’s.
 
JULY 10, 2007 – Even with the selloff, minerals are in total bull market mode.
 
JULY 13, 2007 – The move in tech is for real. Am begging you to buy tech!
 
JULY 25, 2007 – Over the next few months there’s just a huge amount of money to be made owning the technology stocks. Now’s the time (USE KEYWORD “HORSEMEN” TO SEE CRAMER’S FAVORITE TECH STOCKS). The refiners’ margins are being squeezed
 
JULY 26, 2007 – The selling today was pure fear – but 500 points on the Dow may not be enough. Would sell anything mortgage or corporate credit related.
 
JULY 27, 2007 – The banks, brokers and homebuilders look cheap but the earnings estimates are too high and will be slashed. We want to buy stocks of companies that have just beat the numbers and have taken damage in the sell-off.
 
JULY 30, 2007 – The market will go up again tomorrow as the institutions buy stocks at the end of the quarter to make their performance look better.
 
JULY 31, 2007 – The worst case scenario keeps playing out – you have to sell the financials on any strength.
 
AUGUST 02, 2007 – The Dow is going up when it should be going down.
 
AUGUST 03, 2007 – The markets will stabilize. Until then, preservation of capital is a priority. Want you to stay in the game.

**AUGUST 07, 2007 – The ‘Rant’. What the heck happened from July 27th?  http://allday.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/08/07/307269.aspx 

AUGUST 09, 2007 (Dow -387) – The European blowup is not over. Sell if you have any gains in MTG, MBI, KBH, BX, CTX, BZH & WM.
 
AUGUST 13, 2007 – The market action today (Dow -3) is saying that the Fed is going to cut rates – but don’t buy it. Bernanke wants to take us perilously close to recession by not cutting rates.
 
AUGUST 17, 2007 (Dow up 233) – The Fed blinked today with a discount rate cut. The rules of the game have changed. The consequences are all positive. Think the analysts will start reiterating their buys on Monday. The Fed will now cut the Fed funds rate making dividend stocks more attractive.
 
AUGUST 23, 2007 (Dow down .25) – The market is in recovery mode and will be fueled by Fed rate cuts.
 
AUGUST 28, 2007 (Dow down 280) – In the midst of the sell-off there is a bull market in gambling stocks. Casual dining is in a bear market.
 
SEPTEMBER 07, 2007 (Dow down 250) – The Fed will have to cut rates “big” now (after today’s poor jobs report) because we could be staring at a recession.
 
SEPTEMBER 10, 2007 (Dow up 14) – Expect only a 25 basis point cut from the Fed. Rates will not be cut deep enough to do anything this year.
 
SEPTEMBER 18, 2007 (Dow up 336) – The credit crisis may soon be over. The time to worry has come and gone. The 50 basis point rate cut today by the Fed is only the first cut – see three more
 
SEPTEMBER 19, 2007 (Dow up 76) – The rally of the last two days is just the beginning. History says it’s not too late to get on board. It’s time to buy. Don’t pay attention to the bears. Wouldn’t touch the homebuilders. Feel good about owning the banks: Wachovia (WB), Downey Savings (DSL) & FirstFed (FED). Like the dividend payers like AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ), Con Ed (ED) & Genesis Lease (GLS). The Fed cuts will also help retailers like Kohl’s (KSS), Target (TGT) and Sears (SHLD). The US dollar will go higher, not lower
 
SEPTEMBER 21, 2007 (Dow up 53) – We are now in a true bull market. We are going to get close to Dow 14000 within the next two weeks. More Fed cuts are ahead preventing steep declines. We will see “shocking” advances on the way to the 14500 target by the end of the year. Not worried about the weak dollar – makes U.S. assets cheaper for foreign acquisition.
 
SEPTEMBER 26, 2007 (Dow up 99) – If Warren Buffett takes a stake in Bear Stearns (BSC) you will see a move in Citigroup (C), AIG (AIG), J.P. Morgan (JPM) and American Express (AXP) that have held back the Dow.
 
OCTOBER 01, 2007 (Dow up 192) – The market will go higher because rates are going lower and the Fed is easing.
 
NOVEMBER 07, 2007 (Dow down 361) – Would avoid the financials like the plague.
 
NOVEMBER 12, 2007 – We are not at a bottom but the market is oversold. Capital preservation must come first (use keywords “recession-proof portfolio” for Cramer’s defensive picks.
 
NOVEMBER 16, 2007 – Maybe the Fed is done easing. That’s why commodities are dropping like rocks – gold could get crushed.
 
NOVEMBER 28, 2007 (Dow up 331) – The market is bottoming just like in 1990. The Fed has woken up. We can buy selected stocks (see today’s recommendations and major reiterations.
 
NOVEMBER 29, 2007 – The financials have bottomed. Cash is not king now as rates are going lower. The Fed may cut rates by 100-150 basis points.
 
NOVEMBER 30, 2007 (Dow up 60) – You want to stay in the financials now that Bernanke has signaled more rate cuts (see today’s recommendations/reiterations).They will go much higher.
 
DECEMBER 13, 2007 – Think the Fed’s cutting rates will cause the US dollar to rise dramatically.
 
DECEMBER 17, 2007 – See oil going to $150/bbl.
 
JANUARY 03, 2008 – Natural gas prices will outperform oil in 2008.
 
JANUARY 22, 2008 – The Fed woke up today with its 3/4 point cut – we need them to take the Fed funds rate down to 2 3/4% so higher rate mortgages can be refinanced.
 
JANUARY 23, 2008 (Dow up 299) – The market bottomed today. The new leaders are the financials & retailers.
 
JANUARY 24, 2007 – The stimulus package will help retail – will improve same store sales comps that drive retail stocks.
 
JANUARY 30, 2008 – Now that the Fed has cut rates another half point catastrophe has been taken off the table. The market selloff is a buying opportunity. You have a once in a decade chance to make big money right now. Only the mortgage insurers stand in the way of a full blown housing recovery that no one is expecting.
 
JANUARY 31, 2008 – When rates are coming down you buy the retailers, financials and homebuilders. The mortgage insurer problem will be resolved. Don’t want to be defensive now. The dry bulk shippers are overvalued.
 
FEBRUARY 01, 2008 – The banks will go higher because the Fed is still behind the curve and must continue cutting rates.
 
FEBRUARY 04, 2008 – Can’t recommend tech stocks again until August. The banks and the homebuilders should be bought on weakness. Momentum stocks should be avoided. Won’t make a lot of money on the casino stocks.
 
FEBRUARY 05, 2008 (Dow down 370) – The Fed rate cuts will prevail. We will get the housing bottom after Fed funds goes to 1.75%. The new market leaders will be the banks, retailers and the brokers.
 
FEBRUARY 07, 2008 – The summer has been bad for tech for 16 of the last 17 years. Holding on to tech shares past the Goldman tech conference in two weeks is a mistake. The tech money will flow into the financials and retailers.
 
FEBRUARY 14, 2008 – The brokers will not bottom until all the analysts have cut their estimates.
 
MARCH 11, 2008 (Dow up 417) – The rally is not done – we could be in for a week of higher prices.
 
MARCH 13, 2008 – If the Fed buys $50B of agency securities we could see 1000 points on the Dow. The oversold rally will contiue another 4-5 days.
 
MARCH 18, 2008 (Dow up 420) – Think we’re seeing a legitimate bottom in the market. Do not sell this rally. Expect more bank failures.
 
MARCH 19, 2008 (Dow down 293) – Don’t see any upside in the trucking stocks. The four horsemen of the potential Apocalypse are Merrill (MER) ,Citigroup (C), Washington Mutual (WM) & UBS (UBS).
 
MARCH 25, 2008 – Prefer the natural gas stocks vs the integrated oils.
 
APRIL 10, 2008 – The golds have simply pulled back in a bull market – IMF selling is a buying opportunity. Goes to $1600/oz
 
APRIL 28, 2008 – Am bullish whether or not the Fed cuts rates – don’t get shaken out. Have been buying the gold stocks all the way down.
 
MAY 13, 2008 – The housing stocks have bottomed but don’t have the “all clear” to buy. Don’t want to get near the refiners.
 
MAY 30, 2008 – The action in the housing stocks may mean that things will get better for the homebuilders – watch for comments from Toll Brothers (TOL) and Hovnanian (HOV) when they report next Tuesday. If things have stabilized we could get a rally in the financials.
 
JUNE 10, 2008 – Don’t be fooled by the rally in the bank stocks today – they are in real trouble because the Fed may decide to raise rates. Can’t get behind solar now. Don’t like any ethanol plays here.
 
**JUNE 17TH MARKED THE MOST RECENT ONE MONTH CRASH THAT ENDED JULY 15TH
 
JUNE 19, 2008 – Would buy the natural gas stocks (see 6/18 Major Reiterations for names) after weakness today. Want to buy the steel and fertilizer stocks on any pullback. The banks (BAC, C, CMA, EWBC, FHN, HBAN, KEY, MI, NCC, BPOP, WB & WM) will have to raise more capital – would avoid.
 
JUNE 20, 2008 (Dow down 220) – Don’t try to bottom fish housing, autos, banks or the retailers. Like agriculture, minerals, mining, aerospace & defense, infrastructure, and particularly the petroleum complex including natural gas, crude, and the related service companies. Natural gas goes higher.
 
JULY 02, 2008 (Dow down 167) – The market selloff is not done because of global economic slowdown fears. It’s time to sell some of the winners and raise cash. Natural gas prices will go higher, but the natural gas stocks are in a periodic pullback that could get vicious. Sit tight with them if you ar a longer term investor. Don’t like the refiners.
 
July 09, 2008 (Dow down 237) – Don’t bottom fish the financials – the bloodletting is not over. Healthcare will be in favor by the fund managers.
 
JULY 14, 2008 – You can’t own the financials or the homebuilders. There will be more and larger bank failures than IndyMac. If you own a bank stock selling at $5.00 or less, it’s not too late to sell. Think Citigroup (C) goes to single digits. Gold, minerals and energy are in bull mode. The price of natural gas could double if its historic valuation vs oil (6-1) holds.
 
**JULY 15TH MARKED THE FIRST DAY OF THE LARGEST RALLY THE FINANCIALS HAD EVER SEEN ON PAULSON’S PROPOSED FANNIE/FREDDIE BAILOUT AND WELLS FARGO QUESTIONABL EARNINGS AND A SUBSEQUENT SHARP ENERGY SECTOR PULL BACK.
 
JULY 16, 2008 (Dow up 277) – The rally today gives us an opportunity to reposition ourselves before the house of pain resumes. The banking system is failing – would sell the financials on strength. Would be a buyer of the natural gas stocks as they get clobbered. Think the two day decline in oil prices reverses tomorrow.
 
JULY 21, 2008 – After seeing the quarterly reports believe that JP Morgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC) and US Bank (USB) will be the survivors in the sector and will be able to buy up other banks as they fail – don’t see any anti-trust problems. Would buy the first three on weakness, but would buy USB now because it is down far enough. There will be more runs on the regional banks but the sector has put in a bottom. The natural gas stocks are too cheap.
 
JULY 28, 2008 (Dow down 240) – There is no relief in sight for the market.
 
JULY 30, 2008 (Dow up 186) – Do not think the market will revisit the panic lows of July 15th – it’s time to buy on the next dip because it may be the last one.
 
JULY 31, 2008 (Dow down 206) – The market will not drop below the panic low of July 15th. Banking and housing have bottomed. It’s a signal that stocks should be bought on the way down.
There you have it.  Cramer’s resume. This is what was being praised all day long on bubblevision last week.  Perception is an amazing thing. Don’ believe the hype!

27 Responses to “Cramer: The Only One Who Got it Right All Along!(o)*&^%#*”

  1. Cramer is the WWF of Financial Reporting—Funny to watch for entertainment value, but ZERO SUBSTANCE!!

    Nice tally Mark.

  2. I prefer Ventura and Hulk Hogan. Would be nice to make a cisor or head crunch on Cramer. I love the comparison.
    Or the Scorpions twins. Investment advice as clowing.
    Entertain the emperor and the mob while Rome is burning. Nero would love Cramer. Cramer cramming. 🙂

  3. Mr mortgage, He is full of —- he tries to pump up stocks and is compensated by the company’s. all you have to do is not be normal to have people watch you he should wear a g string in his circus act too his ratings mite go up. the real people who care about our finance are watching Peter shiff,jim rogers,ron paul,and others if we want to be entertained cramer is right up there with jack ass the movie.

  4. […] Mr. Mortgage details Cramers resume, with regards to “bottom calling” and the […]

  5. Another know it all who knows more than Cramer. I have watched his show and some of you characterizations of his message, especially recent weeks, is inaccurate or misstated. All I know is that Cramer has made me money. BOOYA

  6. It is so funny to see everyone bash Cramer. 90% of those calls are spot on. The thing about the market that no one understands (hence why this author and 99% of the posters above lose their A** in the market) is that things change, and your opinion has to change with it. His track record speaks for itself, but because you all continually throw your rookie money away, you’ll never have a chance to invest with him anyway. Cheers!

  7. Can you imagine having worked for that guy in his hedge fund days?

    He may be wrong a lot but the reason he did so well in his hedge fund was his ability to reverse his opinions… iow, to adapt to a continuously changing market environment. Some people get bearish & they can’t trade from the long side & vice verse.

  8. Let’s face it folks… the man is a schill! He only exist as an extension of the MSM (Judy, Phil, et al.). He is only there to be a symbol… HELLO!!!

    MG have we become this sad as a nation???

    VOTE ALL INCUMBANTS OUT OF OFFICE IN 2008!!!

  9. Cramer’s either stupid beyond measure or a corporate lackey. End of story.

  10. Gimme a break, Cramer did not have that great of a track record at his hedge fund over the years and made a significant amount of his money during a very shjort period of time shorting tech on 2001-02.

    Cramer was the person he hates the most now. Short sellers that either try to manipulate the market or speak the truth.

    Actually he is that still because every chance he get he disorts the truth on air to millions of people every single day in order to back up his ideas. Every day. The guy outright lies constantly to try and move the market in the direction he wants.

    It used to work in the boring days of low volatility from 2004-06 when the market went straight up no matter what. That period of time is what made Cramer famous because even he could be right 90% of the time. This is a man’s market as the VIX has risen so has his totally incorrect ideas.

    He stooped so low in the past 18 months to only pump hard stocks on the RegSHO list in order to have the best odds at the stock rising. Go check, most of his weekly hot picks are on RegSHO.

    I always suspected he was full of crap but when the market turmoil moved ot my sector I had the proof I needed. He has lied about the mortgage meltdown for a year and a half and has lost many people a lot of money.

    He still lies daily. Case in point…he constantly says “this new FHA bailout law just passed will let banks off load their subprime trash worth 20 cents on the dollar for 80 cents.”

    THIS IS A BOLDFACED LIE. He is trying to help out the banks by making people think they will not have to take as big of write downs.

    THE TRUTH is, the average principal reduction a bank will have to make to get the loan at 90% LTV and qualify for the new FHA bailout is 55% in CA at least. That means an immediate 55% hit. Banks do not get to share in the upside, only FHA. Banks have much of this stuff, especially whole loans on their books at face value meaning the banks that participate are getting ready to take massive hits they may have been able to hold off or foreclosure upon, buy back in escrow and hold the asset at the previously appraised value and not take the hit.

    This new law does not let the banks skate — it hurts them, which is why I think they will be very hesistent to go with it other than in the most dire of situations.

  11. Cramer is one of those weird entertainment personalities that’s so clownish, his track record really makes no difference. I have been following him for 10 years and he quite frankly sucks. He has had a few great calls, but if you’d have been using his previous picks, there’d be no capital to take advantage. Great call in March ’03, but the missteps, and bogus bottom calls of the previous 3 years would have left you wiped out several times over. One of his worst had to be when he bashed a gold stock rally for 30%, and when he finally turned bullish, a savage correction started the next day! 5 straight days of gap downs. Even if you blew out your positions on the gap down the next morning, you were down 10% in less than 12 hours. He even admits he’s not a very good trader.

  12. Jim is a stock salesman. If you read his books they make the little guy think the market is easy to beat. It makes me sick when grandmothers ETC. call his show and think they can trade stocks from his books. They should call Jim’s show. GREED GONE WILD!!!

  13. This vile piece of dog cr@p also brags about predicting the nasdaq collapse, when he was pumping stocks that got crushed 2001-2003.

  14. Cramer made his personal fortune off of thestreet.com stock. Not that the stock or company was that great. I’m pretty sure it hit its all-time high the day of the IPO, nose dived from there, and has stabilized (since Cramer left the company) far below the IPO high. But when you own/owned a kazillion shares like Cramer, as long as the stock’s not at zero, you’re doing mighty fine. I know how he’s avoided indictments as a pump and dumper (just have Elliot Spitzer as your best friend). I do not know how he’s gotten his own TV show on CNBC for so long, but I’m sure playing the part of a raging buffoon on the verge of a stroke has fit in very well with the GE corporate line of bullish entertainment.

  15. Cramer averaged 25% net of fees for all the years he ran his fund. Bull market or not, thats an excellent track record.

    He’s right a lot, he’s wrong a lot. I think he is basically a good person & means well. However, I’d never subscribe to his action alert service or blindly follow his picks/advice/commentary, nor anyone elses, for that matter.

    I don’t like his flip flopping on the short issue from his hedge fund days & I don’t get that, but he is still (sadly enough) a better commentator than many of the others on CNBC ( not saying much, I know)

    He sure does generate a ton of venom.

    If you want to pick on talking heads, pick on Dennis Kneale, Larry Kudlow or Don Luskin who ran his metamarket hedge fund right into the ground & out of excistence. Funny (not really) how CNBC employs the lot of them. Must be a GE thing.

  16. At first I found him mildly entertaining with all of his bells and whistles blowing and popping, but that soon got old. He has proven to be a bigtime flipflopper, as MR.M has pointed out. I think he may be experiencing some memory loss as you cannot possibly recommend a stock on Thursday and then say on Monday that “nobody should be buying that crap”, which has happened on several occations. His gong show and brain dead audience will continue to give him ratings I’m sure.

  17. Cramer made money by market manipulation (his wife was a pro) and naked short sales – he admits to as much in his books and I am not sure why he is not in jail…uh, thats right – I forgot his childhood buddy is Spitzer who was too busy putting Martha Stewart in jail.

  18. First of all, AnotherKnowItAll and IknowCramer are the same person and for their sake I hope they are on CNBC’s payroll. Cramer is a snake oil salesman that would sell out his mother if there was a way he could profit from it.

    Mr. Mortgage put forth a solid argument that CANNOT be disputed.

    Earthling: Please tell me HOW Cramer was able to achieve those returns. Do you even know?

  19. How would I know HOW Cramer achieved those returns? but the fact remains that he did. Obviously he knew HOW to PLAY the game. In his book, he admits to ‘gamesmanship’.

    Look, I realize he’s all over the map, particularly lately. His mind changes so quickly, he is of no use to anyone. And he will be WRONG on his latest bottom call. BUT, I would rather have on someone who is capable of changing their mind than perma-anythings like Dumbass Kneale, Lawrence of America Krudlow, or the always armageddon around the corner types on the other end of the spectrum.

  20. Actually, Cramer is only accurate 48.04% of the time (Pretty weak score). If you really want to know how your favorite stocker picker is doing, you can look them up at the CAPS Montely Fool website. Search for “Track Jim Cramer”. they track stock analysts and how well their picks do.

    http://caps.fool.com/player/trackjimcramer.aspx

  21. Earthling: It is common knowledge that Cramer took positions prior to contacting CNBC with a rumor(s) that he stood to benefit from. That is a fact and Bartiroma was one of his favorites.

    It isn’t hard to generate returns when the major financial station is willing to provide an outlet for your propaganda. The fact that he has evaded prison all these years shows that he knows the right people.

  22. GSH – if he ‘evaded prison’ as you put it, it was because he knew how far he could go without crossing legal, not moral or ethical, lines.

    He played that game (and admitted as much) that you mention above but I doubt that amounted to any significant portions of his returns over the years.

    Bigger hedge funds than his get inside info for analyst upgrades, corporate events/news releases before they happen and they take full advantage of it. I know that for a fact.

    I think some funds are now using Cramer in the same way Cramer used CNBC when he was in the hedge fund business. He is now a tool to disseminate stock moving & market moving info & disinfo, for funds with an agenda. And they’re playing him like a fiddle at times.

  23. Earthling,
    Cramer has never produced audited returns and his claims of high returns are not been substansiated by anyone. He could claim 50% a year if he wanted to. Truth is, if he was such a good manager, he would still be doing it today and 25% returns over a period of time would make you a billionaire in short order

  24. Cramer will be dragged to the guillotines when this casino market finally melts down taking the booyahs’s little savings with it.

  25. This story reminds me of Obama. Like Cramer, he said something prescient in the past, then contradicted himself and said things that were wrong or stupid since. But somehow, all of that is forgotten and he’s lauded for the one thing he said that was correct.

    Maybe Cramer should run for president.

  26. A stopped clock is right twice a day. Law of averages says even Cramer can be right occasionally….. Only those with short attention spans (most of America), lack of knowledge (most of America), and/or the desire for “info”tainment (the station honchos) would listen to him.

  27. He’s made me some money over years. You have to have the ability to read between the lines and not take everything he says as”Godspeak”.Good gosh people, don’t any of you know what a “show” is.!..

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