CA Foreclosure Notices Fall 90% – Problem Solved? No Way.

Posted on September 19th, 2008 in Daily Mortgage/Housing News - The Real Story, Mr Mortgage's Personal Opinions/Research

Alert! Big Spin coming to the foreclosure universe soon.

The chart below represents the dramatic fall in the number of Notice of Default (NOD) and Notice of Trustee Sale (NTS) in the state of CA due to the new law, SB 1137.  CA went fro3k to 4k notices per day to a few hundred…temporarily. Let me explain.

NOD is the first stage of foreclosure after a borrower misses three to four mortgage payments, depending on the state and lender. NTS is the second stage of foreclosure that gives the borrower notice their home will be sold at Trustee sale shortly thereafter.  A NTS comes about 120-150 days following the NOD or about 8-10 months after the borrower misses their first payment. From NTS the home is sold at Trustee Sale 14-days to two months following.

As you can see from the chart below, the week following Sept 6th when the new law was enacted NOD and NTS activity falls off of a cliff, down 90% from the week prior. (data in partnership with Foreclosure Radar)

Notice how the day before the law went into effect, how the banks sent out two times the number of notices…how sneaky. We see data anomalies like this all of the time, especially around end-of-quarter…BANKS!!!

This new law requires the foreclosing entity to perform significant due-diligence ahead of sending out foreclosure notices in the future. What this does, however, is simply postpone the problem a month or so.

This will have a positive effect on the September monthly foreclosure numbers when they are reported the second week of October by Realty Trac and other data providers.  Remember, CA makes up roughly 40% of all US foreclosure activity. However, it will make for a dramatic rise in the November numbers once they get caught up and in compliance.

Banks and servicers are doing all they can to quickly comply with the law and resume sending NOD’s and NTS’.  These notices are required by law before their take back their collateral so rest assured, they did not want to stop sending these out and being on record. When they begin to stream out again we will know in real time.

For those investment funds looking for custom independent research on Mortgage and Housing including data such as these on individual financial institutions, please email me at MrMortgageTruth@gmail.com . -Best, Mr Mortgage

SB 1137 INFORMATION 

Notice: Expect Pre-Foreclosure Volumes in California to Drop Significantly Over The Next Several Weeks

Background: On July 8, 2008, California Governor Schwarzenegger signed Senate Bill 1137 into law. Commonly known as the Mortgage Relief or Foreclosure Reform Bill, it addresses a variety of issues in an attempt to mend the current foreclosure “crisis”. The most significant part of the bill is the new requirement placed on the lenders, loan servicers, and/or their agents to prove that they have attempted to communicate directly withdelinquent borrowers about their financial situation, and have considered potential arrangements to avoid foreclosure. The proof of this activity must be filed with the recorded documents – typically an affidavit attached to the Notice of Default (NOD) or Notice of Trustee’s Sale (NTS).

Issue: The bill went into effect with recordings on or after 9/8/2008. The CA foreclosure process is managed by a trustee, and they were already processing volumes well above their capacity. Many of them are now having a difficult time managing the changes and are scrambling around to set up the processes that support the bill. As a result, we have seen the recent volume of new ND and NT filings decline significantly. In the case of Los Angeles County alone, the previous combined ND/NT filing rate was around 600 – 700 per day. On Monday, 9/8/08, there were less than 100 filings

Message: There isn’t a data problem! This should be communicated more as an adjustment period for the industry and it will work itself through as required processes are established. This only affects California, but it certainly could have an influence on snapshot statistics of a national view

The bill itself can be found here. In addition, Here is also a viewpoint of the bill from the industry.

62 Responses to “CA Foreclosure Notices Fall 90% – Problem Solved? No Way.”

  1. What’s the point in delaying reality for only 1 month?
    Just to make banks quarterly reports look a tiny bit better?

    I can’t wait to see how bubble vision spins this. They probably will bring out a cake. Remember how they did this every time a new IPO came out during the tech bubble days?

  2. Mr. Mortgage

    Do you know when this information will be released to the public?

  3. Elections

  4. Hi Mike – essentially it is released. Remember, all of my data is aggregated through public records. Its just very few have the capability to track it. Only the large data companies such as DataQuick and First American. And the other foreclosure tracking services like Realty Trac. Of course, the banks and servicers know whats happening. It is amazing to me nobody has reported this yet because on a national basis it will only take foreclosures down 20% or so and most will think that is simply a natural improvement.

  5. Between this and the insanity of the fed and treasury a massive depression is guaranteed rather than a nasty recession it’s just delayed and intensified the outcome

  6. Well, sometimes it takes some pain, to make change.

  7. What’s the point in delaying reality for only 1 month?

    The new law put a bunch more requirements on banks before they are allowed to foreclose. This process takes about an extra month, so there is going to be at least a month of slow foreclosures as lenders comply with the new law. There was a spike just before the new law went into place, as banks scrambled to get as many as possible out. More than likely since it puts an extra burden on the banks, we’ll see a couple of months of slower than expected foreclosure rates.

  8. Od
    What one month delay will buy ?
    October – great news. September data shows that housing crisis is behind us. (LOL)
    November 1st week – who is going to be next president ?
    November 2nd week … holy cow. It was just 1137 !

  9. Mr. Mortgage,

    Quick question: If the Government is going to pick up the tab for bad mortgages and mbs paper. Why would anybody currently underwater NOT go into foreclosure? Thanks

  10. You cant make this stuff up. Pass the pop corn. The market needs home prices to be lower. I dont see how anyone or thing can deny this force. Delay it, perhaps, but deny it, I dont think so.

  11. These are crazy times. We are headed towards corporatism.

  12. Change the law so the ones who lied to the lenders about their income can stay an extra month for free before being foreclosed on. This in turn means the already struggling MBS’s, Banks, & Lenders have to for go another month’s interest as well as be forced to re-sell the foreclosed property a month later in a declining market which will result in lower sales proceeds and a greater credit loss.

    F’ing Brilliant.

  13. I have a question similar to notsofastfriend’s in two parts:

    1.) Do you believe the RTC 2.0 bailout plan will come to fruition?

    2.) …and if so, as apparently Wall street is betting that the Treasury will clear everyone’s balance sheets of illiquid mortgage assets, wouldn’t this artificially manipulate the RE market? Lenders would immediately stop dumping foreclosure properties on the market (which they already have it seems), knowing that the government will purchase them…so no need for them to incur any further expenses of selling them as of right now. Once the government purchases them all, which may take up to a year or two, the the new RTC-2 agency can slowly dole them out which would lower the overall in-market supply.

    Thus making any discussion revolving around the number of pending foreclosures basically moot?

  14. Seth – Good one.

  15. Mr. M -

    When will you have the August numbers?

  16. This is a nice little gift from Ahnold to McCain. I almost hope McCain wins so that the coming Depression isn’t blamed on the Democrats.

  17. Today we mourn the death of the free market and rise to the birth of “Hank, Ben, and Christofer’s Casino”, formerly known as the ‘market’.

    That said, delaying the forclosure process more properly aligns it with how the mortgages are carried. If non-performing is now 180 days rather than 120, 90, or 60; it only makes sence that forclosures be delayed as well.

    The REO departments of all the banks need time for vacations, increasing staff, and in general preparing for the rainy season. And politicians need to buy votes.

  18. I see that Wachovia declared an entire 122 billion adjustable rate portfolio as “distressed.” According to the article “Think banks are out of the woods? Think again” on CNBC online. Wow. That’s not good and exactly what you have been alluding to over the months.

  19. I am kinda surprised someone from bubblevision hasnt got hold of this graph and declared a “bottom” in CA housing. Maybe their smarter than they let on?

  20. ye so this is setting up exactly like someone here posted, awesome September and October and then shit hits the fan in November.

    so the plan is to participate in the ensuing rally until elections and before it start amassing gold.

  21. I have this story in front of David Faber who does a great job telling the truth. They were busy so hopefully they run with it next week. The real story needs to be ut out there or this false bottom with jack this market up and then body slam it the very next month.

  22. Excellent reporting.

  23. “Quick question: If the Government is going to pick up the tab for bad mortgages and mbs paper. Why would anybody currently underwater NOT go into foreclosure? Thanks”

    notsofastfriend: From a borrowers perspective, things don’t change that much I don’t think. You could ask the same question when a bank was holding the paper. Why would somebody underwater not go into foreclosure? The only difference is it’s the government at risk of eating the loss instead of the bank.

    Me thinks that Barney Frank guy is right in the pockets of the bankers.

  24. A HUGE thanks to Barry at bigpicture.

    Can you say OVER REACTION!!!

    What Did You Miss If You Took This Week Off?
    Posted by Barry Ritholtz on Friday, September 19, 2008 | 05:36 PM
    in Markets | Trading
    Hey, I took the week off — what did I miss?

    Well, by the numbers, not much — essentially flat for the week

    Index **9-12-08 CLOSE** **9-19-08 AFT**
    S&P 1,252.00 1,255.08
    DOW 11,422.00 11,388.44
    Nasdaq 2261.27 2,273.90
    2YR 2.21% 2.10%
    10YR 3.72% 3.73%
    6MO BILLS 1.55% 1.51%

    Funny, it didn’t feel like a flat week . . .

  25. I hope Faber doesnt report this until Friday. I need the rally to get a little head of steam before I buy puts on the home builders again.
    Yes, October to November should see real blood in the streets.

  26. I agree Peterb, all this does is delay the inevitable and at “Tax Payer” expense… nothing more!

  27. To paraphrase Leona Helmsley “the free markets are for the little people”

    The Wall Street Shill’s Ponzi Scheme has been EXPOSED beyond repair and they are very desperate to keep it going.

    Wall Street for years was tolerated like police tolerate a small time pick pocket.

    Because the take was always keep to 1% to 3% of your wealth you felt it missing but you had bigger priorities.

    Unfortunately, this just encouraged the Shills to engaged in ARMED ROBBERY & EXTORTION.

    The Shill’s are using the “Blazing Saddles” Strategy caught with their hands in your pocket they point the gun to their head and say stop or I will pull the trigger.

    The American people slowly awaking from their sugar induced coma said “wait how big do you want that check to be?”

    The Shill’s just should you who OWNS D.C. lock ,stock and barrel, right to your face.

    But here’s the best part; all the Shills in D.C. spending your money to make the Shills on Wall Street happy will be working for the Shills on Wall Street in exactly FIVE months.

    Finally, the brain dead media will tell you how getting your pocket picked to the tune on ONE TRILLION DOLLARS is really in your best interest.

    Have a good day

  28. Go ahead call me stupid. Maybe I am. But I’m going to ask my stupid questions anyways.

    After all this . I still don’t understand why use a fractional lending system?

    Nobody seems to be able to measured or keep track ofit. There is and never will be transparency in a system like this. So much “phantom money is transacting every second, how can you? No wonder we stopped tracking the M6.

    I keep reading and hearing how the economy will collapse if we can’t get banks to lend. Call me stupid, but isn’t this what got us here?

    Great, the only way to prop-up our economy is to keep everyone dependent upon loans = debt.

    You are screwed if you do and damned if you don’t in this system. I’m kind of glad they temporarily stopped shorts selling. Come on, Shorts are the same thing as taking a loan from the bank and going to Vegas.

    Why can’t we just let the MARKET determine prices?

    So now we the people have lost our freedom completely. Generations of Americans will have the chains of debt on their shoulders from this system. This fractional lending system is great. I’m so glad we salvaged it.

  29. Short sellers are the market’s version of vultures. Not popular, but who else would say “the Lehman Balance Sheet is full of crap” and put money behind it? Who else would devour the living dead and turn them into fertilizer so we don’t end up spending capital to no purpose. Vultures and maggots serve a purpose in the ecosystem – to get rid of decaying corpses and turn them into fertilizer.

    Just ask yourself, how come nobody during the last Fed Party Weekend decided to come forth and buy Lehman. Perhaps, because their balance sheet was full of lies, hot air, and deceit?

    Fannie and Freddie. Only after the shorts had beaten the crap out of those two did we discover the truth about their portfolio. A little less robust than advertised. Wonder why nobody wanted to invest in them?

    Blaming short sellers for a company’s demise is like blaming the grave digger for your own death.

    That’s just one perspective anyway.

  30. Check out item #5 of the Socialist Party Platform

    http://socialistparty-usa.org/platform/economics.html

  31. well, the government is going to write down all the mortgages so that they are affordable to everyone. People who were irresponsible and took on exotic loans to buy houses they could not afford will get a windfall with this. Imagine getting that $700k outstanding loan reduced to $300k because that is all you can afford.

  32. Having worked in futures and commodities trading (though now I’m back to a normal job), I have to say that this whole market problem looks like a set up to me. The question you have to ask yourself is “Who is gaining from this situation?” I am going to say JPMorgan. What better way to set up your rivals for a “rescue” take-over?
    I am not blaming the average borrower, because I called a “legit” mortgage finance program sponsored by my California State Retirement system, and they forwarded me to someone else when my house price didn’t meet their guidelines. The someone else told me that they could get me in a a reduced rate for five years, and then I could refinance, by which time the house would have appreciated so much that I could just sell it at a profit. I asked them “What happens when the market falls?” Their response was “Over time real-estate always makes money” I said “What if the timing doesn’t coincide with my need to refinance?”
    Every investment firm knows that prices go in cycles. There is no way that these real estate bundled instruments could have been put together in good faith. So who pulled this caper together? It had to be someone that stood to gain by the ensueing chaos. I would first look at those who DIDN’T suck up these seemingly easy money instruments. Especially if they were somehow able to make money on them while holding them at arms length.
    This is an engineered crisis, and the JPMorgans of the financial industry know it.

  33. The most important article you might ever read.

    http://www.dissidentvoice.org/2008/09/myth-america-a-stand-up-tragedy/

    Thanks, in part, to corporate media propaganda…

    …we exist within a system in which the “Department of War” was magically transformed into the “Defense Department” just after World War II

    …we exist within a system in which the US uses helicopters called Apache to quell ethnic cleansing

    …we exist within a system in which more than one out of every 100 American adults are in prison, but we still live in the land of the free

    …we exist within a system in which we can carpet bomb civilians from 15,000 feet in the name of humanitarianism and we still live in the home of the brave

    …we exist within a system in which a war criminal like Henry Kissinger can be awarded a Nobel Peace Prize

    This same system allows for free and fair presidential elections open to any candidate over the age of 35…who, of course, praises god and the free market (or am I being redundant?), describes his/her enemies as “evil,” understands that the rest of the world hates us because we’re free, and, oh yeah, can raise at least a half-billion dollars.

    This same electoral system see third party candidates routinely barred from public debates (and often censored by misguided “progressives,” for that matter), only half the eligible voters will even bother showing up, and when all else fails, you can count on the Supreme Court to set things straight (and I do mean straight).

  34. Sounds just like something the dumb-a** Californians would do. (Present company excluded, of course.)

    :)

  35. MR MORTGAGE!!!

    Can you PLEASE do your best to explain the potential consequences-(intended or unintended)- of the coming 700 BILLION DOLLAR bailout on the national housing market?? As someone who has been waiting on the sidelines to buy at the right time and price, I would love to know the following–

    1. How does this stop the slide of house prices??
    2. Will said Bailout keep prices artificially propped up, and will that WORK??
    3. What happens to the coming waves of Alt-A, Prime and Commercial defaults?
    4. WHO will ever buy US debt again and what will this do to our AAA rating as a nation??

    Thanks!! So far, everything I am reading just poses more questions that it answers!!

  36. (Just a Example…)

    Neighbor #1 purchased a house in 06 at the peak for 400,000 and cant pay their mortgage. Now the gov is going to reduce thier loan amount to its current value of lets say 250,000

    Neighbor #2 has same house but purchased it in 04 not at the peak but still when property values were increasing for 325,000 but is still able to pay and afford their mortgage.

    If neighbor #1 gets his loan reduced because he cant pay whats to stop neighbor #2 from deciding he wants his loan reduced too so they can save a few bucks.

    If all these people that are going to get their loans reduced do they get any negative affect on their credit?

    I already know and have heard of people that have good credit that live in a house they purchased at the peak and are buying a house in the same neighborhood for a lessor price. Once escrow closes they decide to default on their other house.

  37. ok. So it’s pretty evident that Congress, the Fed and the banks have no idea WTF is going on. All this bad debt goes so far and so deep they can’t even wrap their head around it.

    Clearly this means that this system does not work and the days of over-leveraging is over. The only way anything will change is if the dollar collapses. We CAN’t PRINT enough to cover this crap!! WAKE UP, the USA is completely INSOLVENT!

    Socializing the debt, doesn’t do anything. What are we going to do? Turn into a 3rd world economy? Are we going to look like Argentina? Will the US mint start printing million dollar bills? Come on!

    When will the people of this country say enough is enough?

    I agree with Stu. Vote out every incumbent. End the Fed reserve, treasury and the fractional lending system.

    If we don’t, you better enjoy the next depression.

  38. This smells like the same thing Wells Fargo did before 2q results were posted. Could this not be the same thing? Let’s postpone certain stats until we make it through 3q earning reports?

  39. well I got mine…..NOD filed 9/3/08….haven’t received it in the mail yet.
    NOT should be in Dec. and that’s when I file BK….If I’m going down I’m going to drag this out as long as I can.
    3 mos. ago my credit score was 750; when this is over I won’t be able to buy a cup o joe w/ my credit.
    I’m fine w/ that.
    King Paulson is raping the US as I type.
    Section 8 in RTC 2……..read it and weep.
    I have to pay for my default by losing my house, no problem.
    Wall Street is rewarded by their former GS buddy for their risk taking behavior.
    What’s wrong with this picture…..we will be paying for this for the next decades.

  40. So who pulled this caper together? It had to be someone that stood to gain by the ensueing chaos. I would first look at those who DIDN’T suck up these seemingly easy money instruments.

    John..

    Please don’t forget about Pimpco..I am sure they have a lot to due with the so called “Caper”

  41. “So who pulled this caper together?”

    All the CENTRAL BANKS.

    Who is profiting from this?
    THE CENTRAL BANKS and the GOV’T.

    The more centralized they can get the finances of the world together, the more they can manipulate it. That’s all.

  42. If you don’t understand the “planned” crash of the economy (the international “banksters” have admitted to orchestrating the depression) as well as the devaluation of the dollar, the merging of America-Mexico-Canada into the North American Union and the establishment of the “Amero” as the new currency…then go to infowars.com (ALSO, see “EndGame: Blueprint for Global Enslsavement” and “Loose Change: Final Cut…the most downloaded video in internet history!) and be educated on real history rather than the occupational government’s version of the real truth. There is support documentation for all claims in the congressional record. Infowars is excellent for those who are lazy to research these things for yourself…that’s probably why “Faux” News and MSNBC is so popular among the slaves. So…stop drinking the Kool-Aid and research for yourself!!!!!!!The shadow government really runs the country and they are preparing for Martial Law for when the slaves find out how hard they’ve been conned!!!!!

  43. See the video “The Money Masters”, here is a ten minute clip to bring you up to speed…
    http://www.infowars.com/?p=4715

  44. http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/21/goldman-morgan-to-become-bank-holding-companies/?hp

    Goldman and Morgan are NO LONGER investment banks, but full fledged banks!! The big independent investment banks are all gone!!

  45. …The set up is simple… create a problem get the public’s reaction and supply the solution.The International Bankers now get to take over our system… We’ve been bad little Boys with our banking system and even got other countries in trouble So the UN wants to spank us and the Big International globalists get to come in and show us how it’s to be done.
    There will be bigger banks who get to eat up the little banks i.e BofA (did you Know BofA did no sub prime loans …hmmm wonder why?)
    Wake up people before it’s to late!!!
    Check out Joan Veons web movie
    http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=504526035342184251

    Also google David Ike He has a free movie to send to all just go to David Ike.com for a real eye opener He’s coming to LA in October …If you really want to get some inside research…this guy is off the charts!

  46. Come on, Shorts are the same thing as taking a loan from the bank and going to Vegas.

    I would disagree with that. I’ve made much more shorting than I ever did with long positions, and I only put a fraction of money into shorts than my longs. I spent the same amount of time researching each position, but with the obvious doom that FNM, LEH, WM, etc were facing, it was easy money.

    Shorts shouldn’t get rewarded with false rumors (I didn’t say anything), but a lot of facts were stated by the shorts. LEH spread much more false positive news than any negative news especially near the end. They will never be punished for that.

    My shorting spree is done. With what was obvious, I should have made a lot more money from the demise. Not that I want a collapse of America or anything, but it was just as easy riding the bubble up as it was the way down.

    House prices should keep dropping, but I don’t see any more obvious short positions to be had on Wall Street. We’re banned anyway.

  47. We got robbed again.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aYXtwpG9mw9g&refer=home

  48. Paulson and Bernake should go to jail to please taxpayers’ anger.

  49. let’s all stick our heads in the sand. yahooooooo!!!!

  50. Bye, bye Investments banks. MS and GS are now banks.
    Free of Monopoly antitrust laws.

    <a href=http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aoDmO_d0IJSU&refer=home

    My html skillz suck.

  51. The conspiracy theorists predictions are starting to come true. Is this a NWO?

    Is the Treasury seriously the new czar of our financial market?

  52. [...] Financial Armageddon Feels LikeStu on So, This is What Financial Armageddon Feels Like Recent PostsCA Foreclosure Notices Fall 90% – Problem Solved? No Way.So, This is What Financial Armageddon Feels LikeAgency MBS Hammered – PIMCO Begging For ANOTHER [...]

  53. For those reading this blog who want a course covering banking, resource extraction, the economy, demographics, etc. In short, a good grounding in where we are and how we got here:

    http://www.chrismartenson.com/three_beliefs

    This the first of over 20 videos that will help you understand. It will take a lot of time, but you will gain a grasp of the big picture and better understand this site and many others.

  54. Fed,

    So why the HELL isn’t Ron Paul running? If ANYONE was more about CHANGE it was RON PAUL.

    I laugh inside how coincidentally J.P Morgan and Goldman S. are the only 2 investment banks who were given the OPPORTUNITY to become banks. Wasn’t J.P Morgan the guy who incited the last great depression? Wasn’t HE the “hero” in disguise last time????

    When will the world wake up and pull the plug?

    We are the united states OWNED by the BANK CARTELS.

    WHEN WEILL WE END THE FED???

  55. Ah CRAP!! Fed, there was no conclusion!!!!

    WTF are we supposed to do?

  56. [...] CA Home Sales & Foreclosure Report…Plus National ‘Existing Home Sales’ PreviewCA Foreclosure Notices Fall 90% – Problem Solved? No Way.So, This is What Financial Armageddon Feels LikeAgency MBS Hammered – PIMCO Begging For ANOTHER [...]

  57. Can I just say CONGRATULATIONS to Carl Denninger!!!???

    Can’t tell you how DAMNNN GREAT it was to see your mug on NBC evening news, as they talked about your tireless mission to expose Paulson and his cronies for the LIARS they are??

    http://www.fedupusa.org/

    Thanks for all you do Carl to try to educate people before they are simply robbed blind, and it is too late to do anything~~ My glass is raised to you, Buddy, NICE WORK!!!!!!

  58. [...] Far!August CA Home Sales & Foreclosure Report…Plus National ‘Existing Home Sales’ PreviewCA Foreclosure Notices Fall 90% – Problem Solved? No Way.So, This is What Financial Armageddon Feels LikeAgency MBS Hammered – PIMCO Begging For ANOTHER [...]

  59. [...] Guide to the TRUTH! » FedUpUSA.com Makes a Stand Against ‘Bank Bailout’ on CA Foreclosure Notices Fall 90% – Problem Solved? No Way.Mr. Mortgage’s Guide to the TRUTH! » BofA CEO Says ‘Half Banks Will Go Away’ [...]

  60. [...] Far!August CA Home Sales & Foreclosure Report…Plus National ‘Existing Home Sales’ PreviewCA Foreclosure Notices Fall 90% – Problem Solved? No Way.So, This is What Financial Armageddon Feels LikeAgency MBS Hammered – PIMCO Begging For ANOTHER [...]

  61. [...] as REO monthly. The image to the left by dollar volume and the right by count. Keep a note that SB 1137 brought down numbers in Sept. The count will rebound once lenders get back in full [...]

  62. [...] SB1137 recap- CA Foreclosures Fall 90%…Problem Solved? No Way! [...]

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