Comments on: Mortgage Early Payment Defaults Surge in 2008

By: fedwatcher

fedwatcher — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 10:55:40 +0000

CaptiousNut,

Not yet short JPM, BAC, and WFC; but probably should be.

By: VacantHomes

VacantHomes — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 05:00:24 +0000

Good stuff, although it would be good to get an idea of what percentage of total loan volume is EPD for each lender. For example, Wells’ EPDs may have nearly doubled, but if the EPDs were only 0.3% of all loans in 2007, and are now doubled to 0.6%, that’s not so bad, but if it’s going from 10% to 20%, that’s another story…

Although any way you cut it, JPM/Chase’s increase of 276% is huge, and troubling.

By: CaptiousNut

CaptiousNut — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 02:14:01 +0000

Thank you Mr. M!

I will sleep sounder tonight remembering that I am short your top three (not counting GMAC) – JPM, BAC, and WFC.

By: od

od — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 22:46:35 +0000

This wouldn’t be the first time the JPMorgan “had significant fraud or intentionally doused the fire to be with a can of Jumbo gasoline.”

By: BertDilbert

BertDilbert — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 20:40:17 +0000

Admin

So while we do not have all the numbers and just the % change, Someone may have been nice calling it a “lapse in risk management”. Looks more like JPM had significant fraud or intentionally doused the fire to be with a can of Jumbo gasoline.

Do the numbers look significantly better volume adjusted or do they still suck no matter how you stack them? The numbers still are difficult to judge unless loan type is stacked against loan type verses same period against other banks.

By: peterb

peterb — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 19:25:39 +0000

The markets are rallying and this is coming down the road?!

By: admin

admin — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 17:36:17 +0000

That is a perfect example of ‘NOTHING IS WHAT IT SEEMS’. What you are seeing here is correct. The large banks went on a lending spree and gave away a bunch of crappy loans. Jamie Dimon even talked about it in Q2 earnings call. This is it.

By: od

od — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 17:22:10 +0000

I’m confused about this chart. The banks with the higher % are more at risk right? Why is JPM and BOA at the top? Those two seem to be the stronger banks at the moment.