Comments on: ABX & CMBX Go Parabolic – ‘Carnage’

By: Rico

Rico — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 18:03:52 +0000

Thank you for your link – it explained everything.

Best regards,
Rico

By: mtg911

mtg911 — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 16:03:21 +0000

Here is a good slidehow explaining the ABX index from Markit.

http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2007/news/0711/gallery.abx_index/index.html

I think you need to keep in mind the ABX only tracks securitizations issued up through the 2nd half of 2007 as thee types of products weren’t really written after that. I believe the AAA in the ABX is not FNMA paper but instead Alt-A, JumboA paper that had AAA ratings that isn’t issued anymore. If you look at the Constituents in the AAA ABX it is made up of players in the AltA and subprime market. So the index is showing the demise and sentiment of the old paper which we know is junk. I think there is greater confidence in the newer FNMA, GNMA paper being written and securitized. No doubt that the change in TARP has drowned TARPtimism, but new issue Agency MBS are trading and holding up decntly well for the levelof fear out there.

By: Sam Dimond

Sam Dimond — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 13:31:31 +0000

The light at the end of the tunnel will be bright alright, On the front of a train plowing towards you….

By: BailoutHell

BailoutHell — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 12:49:06 +0000

This is unbelievable. The FIRE economy has finally done it! All of these bailouts are like putting a bandaid on cancer. The government needs to get out of the free markets and let capitalism succeed or fail on the premise of creative destruction. If an institution is deemed too big to fail, than it is too large and it NEEDS to fail….good post Mr. Mortgage.

By: JAllen

JAllen — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 10:41:50 +0000

Mr. Mortgage,

You are correct, Sir. Carnage. Thank you again for quality posting.

JAllen

By: Jeff

Jeff — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 08:31:12 +0000

Absolute proof that housing is in full recovery: http://realtytimes.com/

so what if it sounds like an a post midnight, infomercial

By: AB

AB — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 05:53:05 +0000

With Case-Shiller getting donkey punched to the extent it has, I don’t think it’s surprising that HELOCs are trading at substantial discounts.

I’ve been as bearish as they get for a while and I think we’re getting to a point where there’s light at the end of the tunnel. You’re seeing pickups in sales volume at lower prices on real estate. You’re seeing gas prices crashing before your eyes. Joe Sixpack paid $4/gallon in January, now he pays $2. If he fills his 15 gallon tank up once a week, that’s $1,500 extra in he’s got per year–that’s a lot more money than the stimulus package, especially if you overlay that on a household with two cars–$3,000 extra per year…that’s a LOT of dough.

Lower prices will solve a lot of the problems people have been whining about the past couple of years. Give it a few more months and I think the light at the end of the tunnel will be rather bright.

By: upthecreek

upthecreek — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 05:40:31 +0000

As goes California goes the nation. California will start defaulting on its debt within the next 4 months… Thanks Arnold.. Remember this campaign promise. “I will tear up the states credit cards”….My ASS

By: Oldtimer

Oldtimer — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 05:39:39 +0000

Am I the only one scratching my head on this?

What sort of default rates and loss given defaults would you need to get to a 31 cent recovery on AAA MBS since these bonds included at least a modicum of subordination? 100% defaults and 75% losses?

WTF? Were these loans secured by ocean-front property in Kansas?

By: HousingRealist

HousingRealist — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 04:43:40 +0000

I can’t wait for the ax to fall on state workers!